Phobos-Grunt Update - Promising News!

After more than two weeks stuck in Earth orbit, Russian flight engineers have finally made contact with the Phobos-Grunt spacecraft.  In a last ditch effort to save the 165 million dollar mission, the Russian space agency, Roskosmos, elicited the help of the European Space Agency and attempted to contact Phobos-Grunt using ground station antennas in Perth, Australia.  Miraculously, contact with the ill-fated spacecraft was established.  After several more passes over Perth, telemetry data was downloaded, and Russian engineers began deciphering the coded data.  Why, exactly, contact couldn't be made up until now isn't yet known, however it appears that the solar arrays of the spacecraft were in an optimal position while it was over Perth, and the extra energy generated allowed for Phobos-Grunt to communicate with Earth.  It still remains unclear what exactly caused the failure of the orbital engine burns, but further analysis of the data and continued contact with the spacecraft will most likely allow engineers to discover the problem.

Phobos-Grunt mission poster (Roskosmos).

Now the question becomes - if Phobos-Grunt can be saved, what to do with it?  The window to send the spacecraft to Mars appears to now be closed, although some debate on this matter remains.  If, indeed, it is too late to try for Mars, the mission may still be salvaged.  One option is to keep the spacecraft in Earth orbit for another two years, until the launch window for Mars again opens, and then send it on its way.  Although, there may not be enough fuel on board for this.  The other option is to completely change the mission objectives, and send the spacecraft to a near Earth asteroid.  The parameters of the mission would essentially be the same, as Phobos is thought to be an asteroid that was captured by Mars's gravity.  So landing on an asteroid, and launching the soil recovery capsule, wouldn't be outside the abilities of the spacecraft.  However, it would take new software and new calculations, and a completely new flight path - and that too could take some time.  Of course any of these options require that enough data can be downloaded from the spacecraft to isolate the initial problem, and then that problem must be fixed.

If Phobos-Grunt cannot be salvaged, it will burn up upon re-entry into Earth's atmosphere on or about January 15th, 2012.  Read more here.

New Moon Map

This week, scientists released the best topographical map of the Moon ever created.  The new map, which covers 98.2 percent of the Moon's surface, gives detailed topo information down to the 100 meter scale.  This is an impressive feat that could only have been accomplished with NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO).

The new, detailed, topographic map of the moon (NASA Goddard).

LRO, launched in 2009 and costing a little over $500 million, has been a resounding success.  In addition to the camera and on board altimeter that helped create the new topographic map, LRO has a number of other high-tech devices; the Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment (DLRE) has created a thermal map of the Lunar surface, while the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) is helping to determine how detrimental cosmic rays might be to biological organisms on the Moon's surface.

The completion of this map comes at an opportune time.  Early next year, NASA's twin GRAIL spacecraft will arrive in lunar orbit, and create the most accurate gravity map of the Moon to date.  This combination of topographical, thermal, and gravity mapping will give scientists truly new insights into all aspects of the Moon's formation and subsequent development.

It's good to see that while NASA's manned program is shifting away from the Moon toward asteroids and Mars, a healthy robotic exploration of the Moon continues.  And it isn't just NASA that shows continued interest in the Moon.  As I've discussed before, China has distant plans to land human beings on the Moon - and while that might be a while off, they have launched two orbiters to our natural satellite, Chang'e 1 and Chang'e 2, as part of their own robotic exploration program.  India, also, launched and operated the highly successful Chandrayaan-1 spacecraft in orbit around the Moon.

There are also a number of private companies and individuals showing interest in lunar exploration.  Bigelow Aerospace wants to build inflatable habitats on the surface of the Moon to compliment their planned inflatable orbital station.  Shackleton Energy is looking into the possibility of extracting hydrogen and oxygen from the lunar surface, processing it into fuel, and building a fuel depot in lunar orbit.  And the Google Lunar X Prize, a $30 million contest to put a rover on the Moon, has some serious entries from cutting edge engineering teams from across the nation.  These are all ambitious plans, but the greater number of entities interested and involved in lunar exploration, the more the cost will come down, and the greater the chances of success of one or more of these projects.

Artist's rendition of a Bigelow Aerospace lunar base (Bigelow Aerospace).

Lunar exploration will go forward, and NASA's continued remote exploration of our closest neighbor will be absolutely vital.  My hope is that lunar programs don't lose steam with the coming robotic and manned explorations of other bodies in the solar system.

Herman Cain Complains

Earlier today, Republican presidential hopeful Herman Cain gave a speech to a group of Young Republicans in which he complained about President Obama's decision to end the Space Shuttle program.  Wait, what!?  Let's be absolutely clear, here - George W. Bush ended the Space Shuttle program.  I don't know if that is a simple misunderstanding of facts, or if Cain is trying to re-write history - either way it doesn't impress me.

The Space Shuttle Discovery in low Earth orbit (NASA).

However, the real issue here isn't who canceled the shuttle program.  The real issue is that people are still up in arms over it.  And it isn't just Herman Cain that's whining.  Just last month, Gene Cernan, the last man to walk on the Moon, testified before Congress that we should take the Space Shuttle out of retirement.  With all due respect to Mr. Cernan, that's completely impractical, and would be a giant step backward from the direction NASA is headed.

Don't get me wrong, the Space Shuttle is an amazing machine.  If I had my way, we'd have a fleet of ten space shuttles, an orbiting Moon station, and permanent mining colonies on Mars.  Unfortunately, there aren't unlimited government funds for space exploration, and I think that's where some people get confused.  In order for NASA to begin human exploration of the solar system beyond Earth and the Moon, other manned programs had to be cut.  In 2005, 30% of NASA's budget, 5 billion dollars, was spent on the Space Shuttle.  The Space Launch System and the Orion capsule, NASA's planned rocket and vehicle to take humans into deep space, will cost between $3 and $4 billion per year for the next 6 years, and probably continue at that rate for the life of the program.  So, there's the problem.  Unless Congress and the American people are willing to spend an extra $4 billion per year on NASA's manned operations, there is no way that both the Space Shuttle and a deep space exploration program could both survive.

It's a question of where NASA should focus its limited resources.  And the solution that NASA and the government came up with is a good one.  Cancel the shuttle and let NASA focus on putting men on asteroids and Mars, and let commercial entities pick up the burden of ferrying astronauts to low Earth orbit.  It's true there will be a gap of several years in American made manned spacecraft.  It's also true that none of the spacecraft currently in the pipeline will have the massive external cargo bay that the shuttle had.  However, companies like Boeing, SpaceX, and Orbital Sciences are showing real promise in realizing commercial spacecraft, both for cargo and astronauts.

Artist's depiction of SpaceX's Dragon capsule (Getty).

The Space Shuttle was the right spacecraft at the right time.  It isn't the only spacecraft for all time.  For American spaceflight to move forward, we need to stop looking backward and we need to stop the complaining.  SLS is the rocket of the future.  Orion is the vehicle that will take humans to an asteroid.  SpaceX's Dragon capsule will be ferrying cargo and people to the International Space Station.  Get used to it.

NASA Moves Forward on Manned Spaceflight

NASA's plans for human spaceflight got a shot in the arm this week.  A test flight of the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle has been proposed for 2014.  Exploration Flight Test 1, or EFT-1, will launch an unmanned Orion into Earth orbit to test critical systems and re-entry at a high velocity.  NASA had previously stated that an unmanned Orion test flight could occur in 2017, so for once in the history of spacecraft development things are actually ahead of schedule.

Still from a NASA animation depicting the Orion capsule detaching from the upper stage of a rocket (NASA).

The Orion capsule is being developed by Lockheed Martin, and it appears to be NASA's choice for the next phase of human exploration of the solar system.  Originally designed as part of the now defunct Constellation program, Orion got a second chance at life, and now looks like it may serve a dual role as a deep space exploration vehicle, as well as possibly doing some ISS taxi/escape boat service.

Eventually, Orion will ride atop NASA's planned Space Launch System (SLS) rocket.  However, as the SLS probably won't be ready for a test flight in 2014, EFT-1 will take place using an existing commercial heavy-lift rocket.  While no existing American made commercial rockets are man-rated, a Falcon-9 or a Delta-IV could launch an unmanned Orion capsule to the high orbit required of the test flight.

Artist's depiction of the SLS (NASA).

Speaking of SLS, NASA is making headway in that department as well.  This week NASA successfully tested the powerful J-2X engine at Stennis Space Center in Mississippi.  The J-2X will be the engine on the second stage of the SLS rocket.  When complete, the SLS will be the most powerful rocket ever built, with the ability to lift over 130 tons into orbit.  It is this massive rocket that will one day be lifting the Orion capsule out of Earth's orbit entirely, on trips to the Moon, an asteroid, or Mars.

Phobos-Grunt Crisis

Russia's Phobos-Grunt mission is in dire straits.  As I wrote earlier, Phobos-Grunt is an ambitious mission.  Its main objective is to land on Mars's asteroid-like moon, Phobos, and return a sample of the surface back to Earth.  If successful, it will be the first direct sample return from the Mars system, and it will be Russia's first successful planetary mission in decades.  "If successful," being the key term, there.

The mission began with a perfect launch aboard a Zenit rocket at about noon PST, on November 8th.  Serious problems arose shortly thereafter.  After achieving the proper parking orbit, Phobos-Grunt was to make two engine burns, which would send the craft on its way out of Earth orbit, and toward Mars.  When neither rocket burn occurred, the Russian space agency, Roskosmos, lost contact with the spacecraft, and its orbit was unknown.

The Zenit rocket carrying Phobos-Grunt spacecraft, shortly before launch (Roskosmos).

There was no contact with Phobos-Grunt until today, when, with the help of US military tracking stations, Roskosmos finally determined exact orbital parameters of the craft, and they were able to download telemetry data.  Once this data is processed and analyzed, it should be clear what the problem with the craft is, and whether or not it can be fixed. 

There are, basically, two possible scenarios.  The problem with Phobos-Grunt could be electrical or mechanical, meaning the on board computers are functioning, and gave proper commands to the engines, but the engines failed to fire because the are physically unable to do so.  The other scenario is that the computer software is faulty.  It may be that the proper commands were simply never given by the computer, and the engines never got the go-ahead to burn.  If the problem is mechanical or electrical, the mission is done.  Phobos-Grunt will remain in orbit for a week or two, then plummet into Earth's atmosphere and burn up in a fiery repeat of the Mars 96 mission.  However, if the software is the problem, it is still possible for Roskosmos to upload new software that can give correct commands to the engines, and the mission might still make it to Mars after all.

Downloading the telemetry data from the craft is a good first sign that salvation may be possible.  Communication with Phobos-Grunt is vital if the mission is to move forward.  Let's keep our fingers crossed that nothing else goes wrong, and that in a few years scientists will be pouring over regolith samples from Phobos!

Check back here for all your Phobos-Grunt updates.  Also, check out russianspaceweb.com

China Succeeds in Orbital Docking

Chalk up another high profile success for the Chinese Space Program.  Earlier today, the unmanned Shenzhou-8 spacecraft successfully docked with China's first orbiting space lab, Tiangong-1.  This docking was performed automatically, which means there was no human control over either spacecraft during the last 50 kilometers of approach.  An impressive feat, by any standards.

Chinese television documented the automated link-up (CNTV/CCTV).

Shenzhou-8 will spend the next 12 days docked to Tiangong-1.  The spacecraft will then undock, and then re-dock to prove all systems are functioning properly.  After spending two more days attached, the two craft will separate for the last time, and Shenzhou-8 will head back to Earth.  China plans on sending two more Shenzhou spacecraft to dock with the orbiting lab, one of which will carry a crew of three taikonauts (Chinese astronauts) for a short stay aboard Tiangong-1.

Artist's conception of the Shenzhou-8/Tiangong-1 docking.

With this automated docking, China takes another step on its ambitious path of space exploration.  What makes this even more impressive is that only a handful of nations have accomplished this task.  The US, Russia, Japan, and the European Space Agency have all developed this technology on their own, and each has successfully sent craft to the International Space Station.  Now that China has demonstrated its ability to dock spacecraft automatically in orbit, it will be possible for the construction of a full-fledged Chinese space station to begin.  China plans to begin construction on a manned station, comparable to the Soviet space station Mir, by the beginning of the next decade.

I, as always, applaud China's progress in space exploration.  However, China's success in space flight always stirs up worries here at home about America's perceived decline as the preeminent space power.  Just last month, private space entrepreneur and founder of Bigelow Aerospace, Robert Bigelow, claimed that China has the ambition and ability to lay ownership to large swaths of the Moon.  Ambition, perhaps, but the ability to land people on the surface of the Moon is in China's distant future, if at all.  As it is, China simply doesn't give their various space agencies the funding they need to develop a truly heavy lift rocket capable of putting large payloads into Lunar orbit.  Add that to the fact that whatever China does in manned spaceflight, they'll being doing it alone.  Their manned program remains shrouded in military secrecy, sequestered from the openness of the international scientific community.  It is, ultimately, an unsustainable path that is doomed to fail.  Tourists will be spotting craters from lunar orbit in spacecraft built by Boeing and SpaceX long before China lands people on the Moon - so don't lose any sleep.