Phobos-Grunt Crisis

Russia's Phobos-Grunt mission is in dire straits.  As I wrote earlier, Phobos-Grunt is an ambitious mission.  Its main objective is to land on Mars's asteroid-like moon, Phobos, and return a sample of the surface back to Earth.  If successful, it will be the first direct sample return from the Mars system, and it will be Russia's first successful planetary mission in decades.  "If successful," being the key term, there.

The mission began with a perfect launch aboard a Zenit rocket at about noon PST, on November 8th.  Serious problems arose shortly thereafter.  After achieving the proper parking orbit, Phobos-Grunt was to make two engine burns, which would send the craft on its way out of Earth orbit, and toward Mars.  When neither rocket burn occurred, the Russian space agency, Roskosmos, lost contact with the spacecraft, and its orbit was unknown.

The Zenit rocket carrying Phobos-Grunt spacecraft, shortly before launch (Roskosmos).

There was no contact with Phobos-Grunt until today, when, with the help of US military tracking stations, Roskosmos finally determined exact orbital parameters of the craft, and they were able to download telemetry data.  Once this data is processed and analyzed, it should be clear what the problem with the craft is, and whether or not it can be fixed. 

There are, basically, two possible scenarios.  The problem with Phobos-Grunt could be electrical or mechanical, meaning the on board computers are functioning, and gave proper commands to the engines, but the engines failed to fire because the are physically unable to do so.  The other scenario is that the computer software is faulty.  It may be that the proper commands were simply never given by the computer, and the engines never got the go-ahead to burn.  If the problem is mechanical or electrical, the mission is done.  Phobos-Grunt will remain in orbit for a week or two, then plummet into Earth's atmosphere and burn up in a fiery repeat of the Mars 96 mission.  However, if the software is the problem, it is still possible for Roskosmos to upload new software that can give correct commands to the engines, and the mission might still make it to Mars after all.

Downloading the telemetry data from the craft is a good first sign that salvation may be possible.  Communication with Phobos-Grunt is vital if the mission is to move forward.  Let's keep our fingers crossed that nothing else goes wrong, and that in a few years scientists will be pouring over regolith samples from Phobos!

Check back here for all your Phobos-Grunt updates.  Also, check out russianspaceweb.com